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Crown Green Handicap

Roy Ashcroft

Team: PoliceDivision: Division 3Last updated: 10/28/2026

Rating

906

Current Handicap

12
Honours
Season:

13

Matches Played

7

Wins

6

Losses

54%

Win Rate

11.1

Avg Win Margin

6.0

Avg Loss Margin

3-5

Home Record

4-1

Away Record

10%

Handicap Confidence

Low Confidence
13 / 41 matches for full confidence· Last recorded match: 9/6/2022

Only 13 of the 41 matches needed for full confidence in the 2024, 2025, 2026 window. The rating is pulled toward the league average, so the handicap may shift noticeably as more results arrive.

Milestones

Career

No career milestones yet — keep bowling!

Next goal: 50 Wins7/50
✦SEASON HIGHLIGHTS

No season milestones recorded yet.

Handicap Trend

All Time · 13 matches

+12 Rising
Win on the night Loss on the nightLower handicap = stronger player

The line re-checks the handicap after every match — from results, winning and losing margins, the strength of who was played, and home or away. Each dot is the number that applied going into the next game.

12 Apr17 May14 Jun5 Jul9 Aug23 Aug6 Sept-13713

Gives 12 more chalks than at the start of this period.

Started0
Lowest0
Current12
Win Percentage(40%)
54%
score+0.08→contribution+0.03
Avg Winning Margin(25%)
11.1
score+0.52→contribution+0.13
Avg Losing Margin(15%)
6.0
score+0.33→contribution+0.05
Recent Form (last 20)(10%)
54%
score+0.08→contribution+0.01
Opponent Strength(10%)
863
score-0.07→contribution-0.01
Weighted Score+0.213
Sample Size Confidence
10%(13/41 matches)
Rating1064 → shrunk 1006→ adjusted 906
Handicap
12

Formula: Rating = 1000 + (weighted score × 300). Each factor is normalized to −1…+1, multiplied by its weight, then summed. Window: factors are computed from the Handicap Calculation Years only (2024, 2025, 2026), excluding walkovers — the same window the official recalculation uses. Bayesian shrinkage: the raw rating is pulled toward 1000 by confidence (window matches ÷ 41, an adaptive threshold set by the last recalculation). Offsets: division and B/C/D team offsets are then applied, weighted by where each window match was played. Recency blend: the calculation years are re-weighted at up to 40% by match volume. Players with a long career but fewer than 5 window matches fall back to their full career record. Rating maps to handicap 0–15 (lower = stronger) via the league's spread multiplier.

League

7W6L13 matches·53.8% win rate
ClubSeasonsDivision(s)PWLWin %
Police2022Division 3137653.8%
DateOpponentH/AScoreResultMarginCompetitionDivision
9/6/2022Ian CunninghamH21-15WIN+6LeagueDivision 3
8/30/2022Jim McMahonA21-9WIN+12LeagueDivision 3
8/23/2022Simon ChurchillH12-21LOSS-9LeagueDivision 3
8/16/2022Tony GreenhalghH17-21LOSS-4LeagueDivision 3
8/9/2022Ronnie GurnellA21-15WIN+6LeagueDivision 3
7/12/2022Alex WallaceA21-10WIN+11LeagueDivision 3
7/5/2022P MurphyH18-21LOSS-3LeagueDivision 3
6/21/2022Peter GeorgesonH19-21LOSS-2LeagueDivision 3
6/14/2022John MarshA13-21LOSS-8LeagueDivision 3
5/31/2022Tom FrithH21-11WIN+10LeagueDivision 3
5/17/2022Alan KearnsH11-21LOSS-10LeagueDivision 3
4/19/2022AbsentH21-0WIN+21LeagueDivision 3
4/12/2022Les DennettA21-9WIN+12LeagueDivision 3

Current Streak

2wins

On a hot run

Longest Win Run

2

Career best winning streak

Longest Loss Run

3

Career worst losing streak

Last 560% win rate
WWLLW
Last 1050% win rate— steady
WWLLWWLLLW
OpponentWLTotalWin %Last Met
Ian Cunningham101100%9/6/2022
Jim McMahon101100%8/30/2022
Simon Churchill0110%8/23/2022
Tony Greenhalgh0110%8/16/2022
Ronnie Gurnell101100%8/9/2022
Alex Wallace101100%7/12/2022
P Murphy0110%7/5/2022
Peter Georgeson0110%6/21/2022
John Marsh0110%6/14/2022
Tom Frith101100%5/31/2022
Biggest Win
Absent (+21)4/19/2022
Heaviest Defeat
Alan Kearns (-10)5/17/2022
Best Season
202254% · 13 matches
Worst Season
202254% · 13 matches
Form Arc (1st half → 2nd half)
50% → 57%improving
Avg Opponent Rating Faced
86313 known · 0 unknown
vs Weak Opponents (rating < 1000)
7-654% win rate
Division 353.8%
7W·6L·13 played

Debut

Apr 12, 2022

Latest

Sep 6, 2022

Seasons Active

1 (5 mo span)

Matches / Season

13.0 (13 total)

Seasons

2022